JOhn Beaton

This is an excellent article but it misses a huge point. It's not true that Authorities think Salish Sea herring are again abundant. They thought so a year ago, but now they don't. They know this fishery poses a high risk of damaging the stock yet they've shown no sign of backtracking. Here's what the DFO's 2020 report says: 1. It's is a long one—209 pages. 2. When you get to page 59, you find the 20% harvest recommendation for the Strait of Georgia fishery. The 2019 report said “Stock biomass is high and growth is positive.” The 2020 report no longer has this sentence. 3. In the final three pages, buried in the last Appendix, Appendix 13, we find this: 4. “Further analysis of additional resource management issues not incorporated into the preliminary risk calculations indicate there is a moderate to high potential to over-harvest in this fishery, which may pose a risk to the stocks.” 5. And this: 6. “To account for these potential additional issues, the overall risk that the fishery poses to the stocks was changed to high.” 7. The DFO's own scientists have been telling them this fishery could wipe out the last remaining viable herring fishery on the coast, and here's why: 8.. In recent years, there has been an apparently sustainable fishery of 20% of the estimated biomass. 9. The estimates of biomass are very imprecise. 10. In 2019 the estimate was a range of 67K to 221K metric tonnes. The quota was set at 20% of 123K (the “forecast”), or 25K. The actual return was only 86K so the allowable harvest ended up being 29%, not 20%. 11. The DFO followed the same methods for its recommendation on the 2020 fishery, i.e. they set the quota based on their “forecast.” This year, that estimate has decreased from 123K to 54K, due to a huge decrease in the expected stock. 12. The range of biomass for 2020 is 27K to 110K metric tonnes. A harvest based on the forecast will amount to 11K. Take that from 27K and you see that the 2020 fishery jeopardizes the stock’s very survival. 13. Given these numbers, the DFO scientists' risk assessment, and the DFO's responsibility not to wipe out stocks, the 2020 recommendation should never have been made. There have been petitions, letters to regulators, and press coverage, but, so far, the DFO hasn’t budged. 14. The herring fishery usually goes ahead in mid-March. 15. If the DFO allows it to happen there may be no more herring next year or ever. 16. Several groups have formed to get the word out about this situation. You can find out more by joining the Facebook Group "Herring Aid." John Beaton